Oil Slides in the Absence of Israeli Retaliation Attack
Geopolitical risk premiums have gradually evaporated from oil prices as ICE Brent futures slid back to $73 per barrel, a level last seen in the first days of October. Whilst the wait for an Israeli retaliation vis-à-vis Iran is still ongoing, the slowdown of China’s economic growth to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024 and the fifth consecutive month-over-month decline in Chinese refinery runs have alerted investors to the downside of Chinese demand, sapping the bullish sentiment again.
Friday, October 18th, 2024
IEA Expects Age of Electricity to Start Soon. The International Energy Agency warned that the world will soon hit peak fossil fuel demand, by the end of this decade, following which the surplus in fossil fuel supplies would enable countries to spend more on renewables, kickstarting the ‘age of electricity’.
Californian Refiners React to Hostile Environment. US refinery Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) will shut its 140,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in Q4 2025, claiming the future of refining in the state is uncertain, with Gavin Newsom’s hostile regulatory environment prompting an exodus of oil investment.
Chevron’s Oil Find Resurrects Nigeria’s Exploration. Whilst Shell, ExxonMobil and Eni have all sought to leave the conflict-prone Niger Delta, US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has just announced a new discovery in the PML 49 block next to the Meji field in the shallow offshore area of the Western Niger Delta.
Gold Soars to Another All-Time High. Up more than 30% in 2024 alone, gold has reached a new record high of $2,696 per ounce this week as investors flock into the bullion ahead of the US presidential elections where both candidates pose risks to the economy just as the Fed started its interest rate-cutting cycle.
Ecuador to Build a LNG Import Terminal. After one failed attempt to operate an LNG import terminal, the government of Ecuador has authorized domestic firm Pacific Terminal to build an import facility in Monteverde, as domestic gas production from the Amistad fields is gradually declining, now at 20.6 MMscf/d.
ExxonMobil Loses Interest in Bakken. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is reportedly gauging market interest for its assets in the Bakken shale basin of North Dakota, comprising 137 operated and 676 non-operated wells across 49,000 net acres, as part of the company’s portfolio optimization drive.
Algeria Seeks to Attract Upstream Investors. Algeria has launched its first oil and gas licensing round in more than a decade as it seeks to boost its portfolio of upcoming projects, offering six onshore permits, with US majors ExxonMobil and Chevron reported to be eyeing shale gas opportunities.
India to Quadruple Power Generation Capacity. India will expand its power generation capacity more than fourfold from the current 453 GW to 2,100 GW over the next two decades to meet rising domestic demand, prioritizing solar energy as it is expected to rise from 91 GW now to 1,200 GW by 2047.
Chinese Coal Imports Shoot Through the Roof. China’s coal imports soared to a new all-time high in September as the world’s largest coal producer also imported 47.59 million tonnes as regional prices dipped below domestic quotes, with preliminary Kpler data showing another monthly record in October.
Shell Might Get Stuck in Nigeria. Nigeria’s oil regulator NUPRC has rejected Shell’s (LON:SHEL) proposed $1.2 billion sale of its onshore oil assets in the country to Renaissance Group because it found the buyer not suitable to manage the assets, as rival majors ExxonMobil or TotalEnergies managed to sell sooner.
Smelter Fire Dents Indonesia’s Copper Ambition. US mining giant Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) will need to postpone sales of refined copper from Indonesia until at least Q2 2025 after a fire at its newly built Manyar smelter damaged the plant’s sulphur acid unit, narrowing an expected 2025 surplus of the metal.
Pemex Slashes Its Upstream Budget. The new chief of upstream for Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex, Nestor Martinez, has instructed the firm’s upstream units to immediately implement a 20% cut in the Q4 upstream budget of the company, curbing activities such as well repairs and seismic surveying.
Libyan Politics Turn Jittery Again. Libya’s Oil Ministry denied rumours that the CEO of the national oil company Farhat Bengdara was resigning due to health reasons, with speculation growing that one of Khalifa Haftar’s sons could soon replace him, just a couple of weeks after the lifting of the oil embargo.