Oil Prices Fall 3% Without Real Change in Fundamentals

Oil prices fell again on Tuesday—by more than 3% on the day—indicating a dramatic shift in fundamentals or some geopolitical tension in the oil-rich Middle East. Only neither of those things has happened—at least not today.

By 10:30am EDT on Tuesday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude oil had fallen by $2.33 (-3.24%) to $69.51—the lowest price in years. WTI crude had fallen by $2.60 (-3.78%) per barrel to $66.11.

But fundamentals have not changed to warrant such a price dip. The API hasn’t issued any figures, nor has the EIA. The world’s largest oil consumer, the United States hasn’t released any significant economic data, for better or for worse.

The only relevant data marker that was released today is customs data about China’s exports, published by Reuters, which grew at a quick pace in August as manufacturers moved to get under the wire of upcoming tariffs. China’s imports, however, were a disappointment, rising only 0.5% instead of the 2% that was anticipated, and a lower growth than in the month prior.

Later today, the American Petroleum Institute will offer its estimate of crude oil and crude oil products inventory movements in the United States. Tomorrow, the Energy Information Administration will offer its estimate of the same.

Brent crude is now trading down $4 from this same time last week, with WTI trading down $4 week over week.

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley reduced its forecast for Brent crude for the second time in two weeks, now expecting an average of $75 per barrel in Q4—a serious downgrade from its August predictions for Q4 of $80, comparing the trend in Brent prices to “other periods with considerable demand weakness.”