Europe could limp through the colder months with the help of natural gas tanks, despite declining deliveries from former top supplier Russia, entering a deep energy crisis next year, the head of the International Energy Agency said.
European countries have filled storage tanks to nearly 90% of their capacity after Russia cut gas supplies in response to Western sanctions imposed on its invasion of Ukraine.
Gas prices, which rose in the months following the start of the war, have retreated, but may be short-lived as countries compete to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other options for Russian pipeline delivery.
To help deal with the pain of gas prices, the European Union is considering imposing a price cap, but the 27-nation bloc is divided as some countries are concerned it could make it harder to secure supplies.
“With gas storage at around 90%, Europe will survive the coming winter with only a few injuries, unless there is a political or technical surprise,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told reporters in Finland.
But the real challenges will begin in February or March when storage needs to be replenished after high winter demand, reducing them by 25%-30%.
“This winter is difficult but the next winter could be very difficult too,” Birol said.
Until the outbreak of the Ukraine War in late February, the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany was one of Western Europe’s main sources of gas.
Three of the four lines have been decommissioned in what the West and Russia say was causing heavy leakage due to sabotage, and Danish officials said the fourth was being depressurized on Tuesday.
sabotage?
President Vladimir Putin blamed the United States and its allies on Friday, charges Washington rejected. Russia has rejected “stupid” theories in the West that it broke the pipelines itself.
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Russia should be part of an investigation into last week’s explosions at two Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea.
“So far, from those news conferences in Denmark and Sweden, we have heard disturbing statements denying any cooperation with the Russian side,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
“We will, obviously, wait for some clarification on that because we believe that, of course, the involvement of the Russian side in the investigation of the damaged area and the investigation of what happened should be mandatory.”
Tensions eased earlier as Russia’s energy Gazprom resumed gas exports to Italy via Austria on Wednesday, suspending flows over the weekend after resolving an issue over guarantees.
The details of the EU price cap scheme are yet to be worked out. It has the support of most countries that see it as a way to tackle inflation, but it has faced opposition from Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands, citing concerns that it will make it harder to secure supplies.
The leaders of 27 EU countries will debate the issue at a meeting in Prague on Friday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that one of the issues was to ensure that member states do not overreact to each other for gas on world markets and raise prices and start buying gas jointly.