2024 Polls: Will NPP’s dominance in Ayawaso West Wuogon be thwarted?

The Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency, one of Ghana’s most affluent areas, is gearing up for the 2024 general elections. The makeup of the constituency provides a stark representation of the inequality that exists in Ghana, with a significant gap between the wealthy and the underprivileged clearly visible across its neighborhoods.

Areas such as East Legon, Airport, and parts of Dzorwulu are home to affluent and middle-class residents, while lower-income earners are concentrated in neighborhoods like Okponglo, Mempeasem, and sections of Westlands.

Additionally, the constituency includes several “kiosk communities” in areas like Okponglo and American House, reflecting the diverse socioeconomic landscape.

Ayawaso West Wuogon is also home to the University of Ghana, the nation’s premier academic institution. Politically, the constituency is bounded by Madina near the UPSA hostel, Okaikoi North at Kisseman, and La Dade Kotopon, as one moves towards the Accra Mall.

This blend of wealth and poverty, coupled with its strategic location, makes Ayawaso West Wuogon a key constituency to watch in the upcoming elections.

Historical context

The NPP has been the dominant political party in the constituency as demonstrated by the table below.

Analysis of Past Results

From the results above, the NDC which has been on the losing side since 2000, presented a new candidate in every election. Delali Kwesi Brempong who contested in 2016 was the first to have contested twice, kind courtesy the 2019 by-election.

It is worthy to note that a high court decision in 1997 nullified the election of NDC’s Rebecca Akweley Adotey as a Member of Parliament.

The NPP on the other hand has changed a parliamentary candidate in every 8 years. George Isaac Addo who represented in 1996, won massively in 2000.

In 2004, chief of staff Akosua Frema Osei Opare went to parliament on the ticket of the NPP and left the scene in 2012.

Emmanuel Kyerematen Agyarko then emerged in 2012, winning against Awuah Darko with a slim margin of 1,691. He went ahead to win comfortably in 2016 with a 10,057-vote margin which is the biggest anybody has ever won the constituency with.

An untimely death in 2018 however meant he could not complete his second term. His wife Lydia Seyram Alhassan was selected to replace him. She won the seat in a violent-characterised by election and in 2020, went ahead to beat the NDC’s John Setor Dumelo.

2024 Polls: Key Factors

The 2024 polls are set to be fiercely contested between Lydia Seyram Alhassan and John Dumelo. For the first time, two candidates from the leading parties are having a second chance to face off.

Historically, the NPP’s George Isaac Addo competed against Rebecca Adotey in 1996 and Elvis Afriyie Ankrah in 2000. Similarly, Frema Osei Opare entered parliament in 2004 against Samuel Adiepena and faced Albert Twum Boafo in her re-election in 2008. The late Kyeremanten Agyarko won against Kwame Awuah Darko in 2012 and Delali Kwesi Brempong in 2016.

This thus brings a difference to the dynamics, as for the first time, the NDC’s John Dumelo has the opportunity to have a ‘rematch’ with Lydia Seyram Alhassan or Maa Lydia as she is affectionately called.

The NDC appears further emboldened by the gap with which the incumbent MP won the seat with. She won with 2,373 votes margin which is a 75% reduction of the 10,057-vote margin with which the NDC lost the 2016 polls.

The NPP on the other hand appear unperturbed. They believe the absence of students from the University of Ghana on the day of the polls resulted in this slim margin. They are thus confident that, with the certainty of students being on campus for the 2024 polls, they will maintain their dominance,

Ironically the NDC believes same factor will inure to their advantage.

But how important are the votes in the University of Ghana?

Political colours of Electoral Areas

To answer this, there is a need to look at the political administration of the constituency and where the two parties source their votes from.

The constituency is made up of 13 electoral areas including; Legon, Westlands, North Dzorwulu, South Dzorwulu, Roman Ridge, Abelemkpe, Tesano (Santana Market area), Okponglo, East Legon, Airport and Christian Centre.

The NDC is dominant in Okponglo which includes Bawleshie, Abelemkpe, Mempeasem and some areas in Christian Centre, according to the party.

The NPP is dominant in Legon, Dzorwulu, East Legon, Airport, Roman Ridge, Tesano (Santana Market) and per the party’s leadership in Christian Centre as well.

When the two parties were contacted, they both listed Westlands as the stronghold of their opponent.

Despite having strong support in the respective areas outlined above, the Legon electoral area appears to be the determinant of who wins the election due to the number of voters in the register.

In addition, their support for the NPP over the past years creates a difficulty for the NDC.

Per internal collated figures of the political parties sighted by the Channel One Research Unit, Lydia Alhassan who won the 2020 polls led the NDC in the University of Legon with a 1770 votes margin.

The NDC however with four electoral areas including Abelempke, Okponglo-Bawleshie and Some parts of East Legon led the NPP with a 1450 votes margin.

Not only was the NDC unable to make up for their defeat in the Legon electoral area with votes from their strongholds, they could not match up to the votes the NPP attained in its strongholds.

The Battle for Legon

From the data above, it is clear the NPP’s victory is hinged largely on maintaining its dominance in the University of Ghana and the NDC can only make history of turning the seat green when it works on dwindling the NPP’s dominance.

Thus, it is not surprising that the two main candidates in the Ayawaso West Wuogon parliamentary race have dedicated significant time and resources to supporting members of the university community.

Both candidates have individually assisted the various Junior Common Rooms (JCRs) and the Students’ Representative Council (SRC) in addressing student needs.

For instance, Lydia Alhassan has, over the years, arranged transportation for students from regions such as Kumasi, Cape Coast, and Tamale to and from campus. Additionally, she provides financial and material support to students. As part of her efforts to connect with the student body, the incumbent MP regularly visits students in their hall rooms, participates in student programs, and attends various student-organized events.

Lydia Alhassan’s approach to Legon politics mirrors that of her late husband, Emmanuel Kyeremateng Agyarko. Mr. Agyarko was highly visible on campus, often more so than student politicians, attending hall games, hall week celebrations, and even visiting classrooms. A trait that earned him admiration from students.

However, according to her team, Lydia Alhassan’s approach differs slightly as she prefers to keep many of her efforts on campus low-profile. Despite this, her presence remains felt.

Her opponent, John Dumelo, has also maintained a strong presence at the University of Ghana. In 2020, he launched a support program, distributing laptops to students. After the 2020 polls, his focus briefly shifted away from Ayawaso West Wuogon, as sources close to his camp indicated he was considering contesting the Guan seat. However, after deciding against running in Guan, Dumelo reconnected with the constituency and the University of Ghana. His team is confident this period of indecision will not impact their chances in the upcoming election.

John Dumelo continues to engage with students by participating in hall weeks, SRC programs, and other student association events. He also provides support in his way, such as organizing buses to transport students out of Accra to their homes last semester.

Both candidates are confident that their strategies, supported by the student wings of their respective parties, TESCON for the NPP and TEIN for the NDC, will help them secure victory in the Legon electoral area.

Scramble for Other Electoral Areas

While the Legon vote is crucial, it alone cannot guarantee a win in the Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency. Both parties work diligently to maintain their strongholds while making inroads into each other’s territories.

John Dumelo of the NDC continues to engage voters through door-to-door campaigns in areas like Okponglo, Mempeasem, East Legon, Wetlands, and Dzorwulu.

He responds promptly to local concerns, demonstrated when he recently addressed a water crisis in Okponglo. His team is confident of retaining support in NDC strongholds, but they face challenges in NPP-dominated areas such as East Legon and Airport, where residents value their privacy, making personal campaigning difficult.

However, Dumelo’s team has navigated this through strategic house-to-house visits that respect the privacy of constituents.

For Lydia Alhassan, her team is confident of retaining their strongholds, crediting her work in providing streetlights, improving sanitation, and implementing asphalt overlays. In NDC-dominated areas, Alhassan’s team is focused on reducing the NDC’s margins or swinging the vote in their favour through social infrastructure projects.

In Westlands, where flooding is a major issue, Alhassan’s team claims to have constructed a gutter to mitigate the problem. However, the issue has not been fully resolved due to a faulty drain that lies within the Dome Kwabenya and Okaikoi North constituencies.

They also highlight the construction of a metal bridge, which has aided Wetlands residents who used to cross a river to reach Kisseman. The NDC, however, disputes this claim, stating the bridge was initiated by the area’s Assembly Member, not the MP.

In Mempeasem, the ongoing construction of a hospital is seen as a key appeal to voters. Alhassan’s team is also looking to reduce the NDC’s influence in the Okponglo electoral area, particularly in the Legon Staff Village, where they have built a community centre and a classroom block.

Personalities of the Candidates

The dynamics of the 2024 General Election in Ayawaso West Wuogon cannot be analyzed without considering the personalities of the two leading candidates and how crucial they are to their electoral success.

John Dumelo, the NDC candidate, is an actor and a farmer with a dedicated fan base, particularly among the youth, which is a key demographic in the constituency. His popularity in the entertainment industry is expected to play a significant role in shaping his prospects.

Lydia Seyram Alhassan, on the other hand, is known for her generosity and her eagerness to support her constituents. Those familiar with her before the passing of her husband recall that she was actively involved in helping the community even while her husband was the sitting MP. According to Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency chairman Osman Iddrisu, there was an instance when Lydia Alhassan stepped in to resolve issues affecting constituents before her late husband became aware of the situation.

As an MP, she has built a reputation for assisting people across party lines, which further strengthens her standing among voters.

Conclusion

As the 2024 election approaches in Ayawaso West Wuogon, the key question is: Will Lydia Seyram Alhassan’s track record be enough to hold off the youthful appeal of John Dumelo, or will the actor-turned-politician bring an end to NPP’s dominance in the constituency? With students returning to Legon for this decisive vote, the race is wide open and who will claim victory in one of Ghana’s most affluent and diverse constituencies?